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Tuesday: the Big Day

No Torontonians, it’s not due to the massive snowfall about to hit us.  Tuesday will be the biggest yet in the saga in Egypt with the “march of millions.”

I think this will be the day we can really gauge whether or not President Hosni Mubarak remains in power or not.  It seems almost everybody is quick to assume he will be overthrown, but everything hinges on those powerful close to Mubarak – and we as outsiders really can’t make a fair judgement on their loyalty.  Will they see it as a sinking ship and side with the masses? Or will they see the situation as repairable?

Al Jazeera English just published an interesting report stating that the Army has vowed not to use force against the people.  An open-invitation if you will to go at those clinging onto power.  Now I’ve only been around since 1986  – so I can’t fully affirm the norm in overthrows – but one thing I’ve observed in the past is the fact there is often a joint venture with some sort of armed forces teaming with the people to ‘symbolically’ capture an important piece of real-estate, often in front of the international news cameras (to be 24 hrs repeat broadcast on CNN).

If you start to see the tanks line up, and the people start to follow them towards ‘El Presidente’ – we could very well see Mumbarak ousted tomorrow.

2011 is shaping up to be a memorable year thus far, and maybe these overthrows are what Africa needs to be a presence globally.  The question is now: how many will fall?

Personally, I see another Iranian revolt as the likely next mass-protest.  Many are saying Yemen will be next, but with the IMMEDIATE terrorist threats there (as opposed to Egypt or Tunesia) – I really can’t see America allowing that nation to risk instability, as it would pose an immediate threat to us in the western world.  Especially with the American-born Radical Islamic cleric Anwar al-Awlaki still at large.

Anwar al-Awlaki

The NY Times oddly enough recently had an update on his status in Yemen:

WASHINGTON — A judge in Yemen sentenced the radical American-born Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in absentia on Monday to 10 years in prison on charges of incitement to murder and belonging to a terrorist group.

American and Yemeni officials say Mr. Awlaki is working with Al Qaeda’s Arabian branch to plot terrorist attacks, and the Obama administration has authorized his targeted killing. He is believed to be hiding in the remote mountains of Shabwa Province in Yemen.

The link to the piece can be found here

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